Past is Prologue

In the week after the Mumbai massacre I asked two politician friends of mine the following question:

Which scourge affecting India is a bigger killer – terrorism or kids dying of starvation?

They both replied, “It is obviously terrorism. Look at the way almost 170 people have been killed just last week….and we cannot forget the deaths of innocent people in other acts of terrorism.”

In one of my classes on creativity, a youngster insisted, in the face of my submissions to the contrary, that air travel was the most dangerous form of travel. I explained statistical data to prove my point which included a slide showing that riding a two wheeler was probably the most dangerous form of transport. I repeatedly tried to explain some basics of probability theory and showed the basis for my contention about two wheelers but he refused to budge from his stand that air travel was the most risky form of travel. At the lunch break another trainee took me aside and told me that the ‘recalcitrant’ young man had lost his brother in a recent air disaster.

My Indian friends with an interest in the USA, often speak to me of the horrific incidents of violence in that country that they read about or see on Indian television. One seriously discussed tragedy was the Virginia Tech killings. My friends believe that the US is a dangerous place to live, especially for students from abroad. The Indian media has even speculated that there “will be a drop” in the number of Indian students seeking admission to US colleges.

In each of these incidents we can see a psychological phenomenon in action.
It is called the AVAILABILITY HEURISTIC.

What is happening is that a recent or vivid incident dominates our thinking disproportionately. We tend to ignore the totality of data on a subject simply because a recent piece of information, more readily available to us, has overwhelmed us and skewed our thinking.

In the instance of my political friends, it was apparent that the shocking Mumbai massacre with its gruesome deaths had disproportionately affected their judgment. Statistics will bear me out that more kids in India die from starvation every year than the number of deaths attributable to acts of terrorism. I am not suggesting that terrorism need not concern us. Even in the Mumbai case I observed that although more people died at the CST station than at the south Mumbai five star hotels, most people I know talk about the massacre in terms of what happened at the hotels and the Jewish house, simply because the television images of these incidents are vivid in their minds. Our most recent and vivid images of that incident are the south Mumbai ones.

As far as the our young trainee is concerned, the recent tragic death of a close relative was vividly etched in his mind thus blinding him to cold overall statistics indicating that riding a two wheeler was far more risky than traveling by air.

As for my friends who observe the US, the shocking images of dead students – including one Indian student and an Indian professor, no doubt remained vividly etched in their minds. Television coverage, like Hollywood films, presents slick images of such incidents which serve to create a vivid impression in our minds, thus blinding us to the overview of a situation. It is a fact that more people die of road accidents in Mumbai in a year than the number of students who are murdered on American university campuses. I told my Mumbai friends to watch out as they walk on Mumbai roads chatting with others on their mobile phones about violence in the US!

Incidentally, the number of Indians seeking admissions to US campuses touched record levels in the months after reports of violence. These young students have made allowance for the recency and vividness effects!
I also advise my executive friends to work hard, meet their bosses daily and do a great job in the three months leading up to their appraisals.

The boss as well is vulnerable to the vividness and recency effects. He or she will appraise employees based largely on their performance in the most recent 3 months that remain vivid in his/her memory!
It pays to be aware of this phenomenon. To keep track of the actual facts while thinking or deciding, just take a few moments to look at the overall statistics or data before forming judgments.